East with large-scale atmospheric circulation such as the

East African countries depend mostly
on rain-fed agriculture as the main driver of their economies, which are very
vulnerable to variations and long-term changes in weather and climate. This has
been clearly confirmed by the devastating effects of recent flooding and
prolonged droughts over Eastern Africa Latif et al., (1999)?Hastenrath et al., 2007, 2010; Okoola et al., 2008;
Nicholson, (2016). The recurrences of floods and droughts have been associated
with many socio-economic miseries. This is a region affected by serious food insecurity
and resources-based conflicts. IPCC (2007) report.

 

The occurrence of these weather
events results from complex interactions
between various climate or weather systems at local, regional or global scales.
The detection of long-term changes in the inter-annual variability of rainfall
is important since it provides us with a better understanding of the climate
system, also enables us to identify environmental shifts possibly impacting
crop yield and rangeland productivity, Gitau
et al., (2017).

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Some of the SST gradients that have
been documented to influence climate of the region and beyond include the Zonal
SST gradients in the Indian Ocean associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Saji et al., (1999), Clark
et al, (2003), Owiti OZ (2005); the zonal SST gradient in the Pacific
Bjerkness J. 1969,
Nyakwada W(2009) and the zonal and meridional SST
gradients in the Atlantic Ocean Nobre
& Srukla, (1996), Moura & Shukla, 1981,Wang, 2002. The meridional and zonal SST gradients are
linked through teleconnections with large-scale atmospheric circulation such as the Walker and Hadley
cells (Wang,
2002).

 

The variability of the East African
rainfall has been investigated by many researchers and scholars. In most of the
studies conducted over the region, various phenomena were investigated on
different timescales in relationship to the variability of the region’s climate
(e.g. Ogallo, 1988; Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987; Nicholson 1996; Barnston and
Ropelewski, 1992; Saji et al., 1999).

In this study, we investigate Variation
of September – November Precipitation in East Africa and the North Atlantic
Oscillation effects.