The for the first time, and the UK-EU

 

The last 23rd
of June 2016 the UK has voted to leave the European Union. This event has been
an historic one that will mark a before and after for both economies. When I
actually knew what was about to happen in the European Union, I just could not
believe that one country wanted its independence from the strongest economic
union in the world. Nowadays, this important decision has been taken for the first
time, and the UK-EU negotiations have started. It is uncertain which is going
to be the future of both of them, but it is clear that they future and economic
growth will mostly depend on future negotiations. In this essay I will try to
give my point of view regarding the negatives effects from which I have been
see and learning since this important fact has occurred and during the last
seminar of doing business after Brexit in UK and EU.

 

Even though there
will be almost two years of the UK exit, there still many negotiations to
conclude. For instance, one of the hardest ones will be the following: The rights
of all the EU citizens living, studying or working in the Uk and vice versa, also
the financial obligation that UK still having with EU, the further trading
negotiation that will affect certain countries that are strong related with Uk,
for example, the Northern Ireland and the European Court of Justice and the
WTO.

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If we analyze the
trading negotiating scenario, UK has not only trade agreements with the
European Union, but also with the WTO members under the WTO rules, so it will
lose automatically the free-trade agreements and it will have to re-negotiate
tariffs with 163 countries. Which for some of them, UK is not anymore
interesting to have business with if it’s not part of the European Union, so it
will face many risks to be rejected from others which will produce a loosing of
the pound making everything more expensive for them and reducing a very important
part of its importations and exportations, therefore in its trade balance.

 

If the trading
negotiations are not beneficial for the UK, we can infer which player is going
to be the more affected in terms of growth rate, GDP, tourism, exchange rate, etc.
It is not a surprise that the Brexit was a very bad decision, it is not either
a surprise that the person (Nigel Farage) who was more motivated in “getting
back his country” and encouraging millions of people with highly misogynistic
ideas, is now the person which is proposing a second referendum in order to
make vote all the people who didn’t vote the first time, and so, we just can
turn over the book page.

 

I only hope, that
currently, many people in the world are looking deeply inside in the post Brexit
effects, the current negotiations, the economical and political impact that a
bad decision has brought up. Only in this way, we can prevent liberal radical
movements such as Spain with Catalonia or North and South Italy, showing them beyond
than political and historical interests, there are many other things to take
account before of having a deep recession 

 

To conclude I will
say that besides the event that the UK is the first member to leave officially
the EU, the reason why Brexit is such a great deal is that we just don’t know
how it will turn out yet. It’s a big, dramatic move that will take years to
complete; years of shifts that will impact the pound and European markets along
the way. It will certainly make the UK countries seem less hospitable to new
immigrants but whether Brexit will deter terrorism, buoy the economy and make
the UK stronger through independence has yet to be seen. So maybe the big deal
is just not knowing the extent of the impact on jobs, homes, trade
relationships with other countries and whether countries outside of the union
will see a fragmented Europe as a weakened one.